Jun

One Oak Leaf, a Sago Palm Frond, and Hindsight Probability

Andrew Bernardin at 11:05 am under evolution,images

Oak leaf in a sago palm. What are the chances that a single leaf would fall from a tree and get blown by the wind to lodge in a palm frond like that? I bet if you performed an experiment consisting of a pile of oak leaves on a roof and a leaf-blower (to simulate wind), you’d go through quite a few leaves before you could get one to do that. To cause one leaf to exactly match the above outcome, down to finer than millimeter accuracy? Perhaps one in millions. You couldn’t do it.

That, in a nutshell, is why I don’t trust hindsight probability arguments. Because it was so unusual — very improbable — it was meant to happen.

Really? Maybe improbable is just improbable.